Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 245.066298 299.040454 366.155032 457.256772 580.112801 7.437197e+02 9.846337e+02
2025-07-20 191.413268 256.609763 348.868206 494.498827 729.959255 1.118839e+03 1.868264e+03
2025-07-27 158.969011 227.516261 333.921127 522.269889 875.257207 1.580891e+03 3.359051e+03
2025-08-03 135.690469 203.873599 317.426739 537.600731 1004.848906 2.115798e+03 5.796302e+03
2025-08-10 117.570747 183.417200 299.323229 541.405104 1112.842894 2.705877e+03 9.705895e+03
2025-08-17 102.106786 163.927629 277.511481 529.213454 1178.180658 3.260026e+03 1.537065e+04
2025-08-24 89.793559 147.603864 257.677171 514.229685 1229.280975 3.844264e+03 2.428313e+04
2025-08-31 79.828392 133.861273 239.914778 498.179103 1270.005204 4.464234e+03 3.872305e+04
2025-09-07 77.010081 133.048324 248.223295 548.475343 1552.650508 6.699253e+03 1.141973e+05
2025-09-14 71.207259 125.443724 240.358629 554.067253 1689.746444 8.538588e+03 2.850710e+05
2025-09-21 67.202954 120.852694 238.274377 575.332160 1909.559648 1.171239e+04 1.215671e+06
2025-09-28 62.250559 113.604453 228.658748 571.310513 2022.658550 1.454850e+04 6.367186e+06
2025-10-05 60.839281 113.915364 237.830740 632.202286 2528.779178 2.538144e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 58.996895 113.032021 243.984984 687.321978 3102.015320 4.553236e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 56.679606 110.733340 246.002772 729.574909 3685.007968 8.174994e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 53.897720 106.968244 243.288679 753.162084 4197.134383 1.419433e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 50.846762 102.174566 236.784256 759.029200 4595.933626 2.352361e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 47.417541 96.076328 225.475433 740.145769 4750.433614 3.389150e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 44.230145 90.243631 214.052803 717.026299 4842.065361 4.780813e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 41.324254 84.822429 203.059740 692.363261 4892.586947 6.680253e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 41.086793 86.043234 212.496665 769.993474 6401.989766 4.233736e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 39.297698 83.104886 208.414868 778.686507 7056.467682 1.789651e+07 NaN
2025-12-14 38.116420 81.617985 208.768177 811.855217 8272.094723 1.093952e+09 NaN